Daily Forex Analysis and Predictions for July 21, 2009

Hati-hati dengan berita US nanti malam jam 21:00 , karena berpotensi untuk High Impact di pasar

kemungkinan (tapi belum tentu malam), dan jangan order sell dulu ya, sebaiknya Buy lebih bagus untuk G/U

Kalau kami lebih prefer untuk Buy

Tapi sebaiknya dilihat dulu nanti siang bagaimana, kalau arahnya memang mengarah ke atas sebaiknya di-cut

Tidak, cuman mungkin G/U diperkirakan ada potensi untuk koreksi turun dulu.

dan mungkin timingnya saja yang bisa berbeda antara E/U dan G/U

Buy Limit = Buy dibawah harga pasar
Buy Stop = Buy diatas harga pasar

http://www.gainscope.com/forexdasar

Semoga membantu 🙂

karena pengaruh dari kebangkrutan perusahaan CIT group

Masih belum tahu, tunggu ada kepastian finalnya dari berita2

CIT $3 Billion Rescue May Not Prove Permanent Salve for Lender

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1R7NiwewIgs

prediksi kami akan OP Buy, Mungkin bisa sampai ke 1.66

tapi waspada terhadap berita juga ya

kalau sudah cukup profitnya, bisa di-liquid, dan istirahat 🙂

yang di http://www.gainscope.com/signal.php itu adalah lebih dikhususkan untuk order dengan Robot Gainscope, memang beda.

Malam nanti jam 9 WIB ada berita yang berkemungkinan untuk high impact, atau mungkin bisa di berita2 yang mendadak terjadi di market yang tidak bisa kita prediksikan sebelumnya. Jadi agar mengantisipasinya yang terpenting adalah control risk managementnya.

Untuk hari ini kami lebih prefer Buy, tapi waspada terhadap koreksi turun yang mungkin bisa terjadi terlebih dahulu.

INFO DARI RABOBANK:

Dutch lender Rabobank says it expects the U.S. dollar to remain the world’s dominant reserve currency for the next 20 years due to the lack of viable alternatives and the continued use of the U.S. dollar for trade-settlement purposes.

Despite recent comments from countries such as China advocating the need for an alternate reserve currency, there appears no desire among central banks to dump the U.S. dollar, as reflected by its rising share of the world’s currency reserves, said Jan Lambregts, Rabobank International’s global head of financial markets research.

“As long as the vast majority of the world’s reserves are in U.S. dollars, this automatically means the U.S. dollar will remain as the world’s reserve currency,” Lambregts told Dow Jones Newswires on Monday. He said recent data from the International Monetary Fund showed the U.S. dollar’s continued dominance in global reserves.

Central banks around the world hold more U.S. dollars and dollar securities than assets denominated in any other foreign currency.

According to the IMF, the U.S. dollar’s share of the world’s currency reserves rose to 65%, or US$2.64 trillion, in the first quarter this year, from 64% in the fourth quarter of 2008. It was the highest level since the second quarter of 2007’s 65.3%.

By contrast, the euro’s share of currency reserves fell in the first quarter to 25.9% from 26.5% in the fourth quarter last year, according to the IMF data.

Lambregts said the rise in U.S. dollar-denominated reserves shows settling trades in the U.S. currency remains common practice.

“Arguably the euro could act as an alternative,” he said. However, since its introduction in 1999, “the euro really has been disappointing in terms of taking the overall share” of currency reserves.

He said the Chinese yuan also can’t be considered as a reserve currency for now, partly because it isn’t fully convertible.

“It goes further than that. To be a reserve currency, you also need well developed financial markets and the availability of widespread financial products with lots of liquidity,” said Lambregts.

He said China’s financial markets aren’t particularly well developed or liquid.

Lambregts said the long-term trend will be for a “passive diversification” from the U.S. dollar, whose dominance as a reserve currency will slowly fade while others gradually assume importance.

He said the world will likely move toward accommodating multiple currencies, a situation in which the dollar, euro, and even the yuan will potentially have roles to play.

“We are probably talking about 25 to 30 years down the road before…there will be multiple (reserve) currencies,” he said.

ikuti sesuai dengan prediksinya ya.
Kalau nanti menyentuh di 1.43 bisa Sell dengan TP 50-100 point 🙂

Team analis kami akan pamit pergi sebentar untuk suatu keperluan, nanti akan kembali lagi

Ikuti saja sesuai dengan prediksinya ya, dan Always Control Your Risk Management

GainScope.com

Mohon maaf atas downtime di server website pada waktu sore tadi, hal ini diakibatkan dari overloaded traffic

==========

We are sorry for the website downtime due to the high traffic overloaded

and now it is back normal again

Thank you for your patience

Gainscope.com

terima kasih

kami sedang berusaha ingin pindah server website, karena kelihatannya yang saat ini tidak mampu menampungnya.

G/U prediksinya setelah turun akan naik

waspada dengan berita nanti malam jam 9 ya

iya, tapi hati2 dengan berita jam 9 malam nanti ya

betul kalau ingin aman lebih baik nunggu setelah Mr.Bernanke 🙂

ok sama2 Pak

Salam sukses 🙂

GainScope.com

sesuaikan dengan prediksinya ya Pak.

Untuk saat ini G/U dan E/U diperkirakan akan naik (sesuai prediksi), tetapi tetap waspada dengan berita nanti jam 9 malam WIB ya (GMT+7)

Kalau ingin lebih aman, sebaiknya ditunggu reaksinya setelah pidato dari Mr.Bernanke di jam 9 malam tersebut (waktu Indonesia)

bisa disimak di TV Bloomberg di http://www.beritaforex.com

tadi itu karena maintenance server website, jadi down sesaat karena server overloaded. Tadi diperbaiki oleh team teknis

Fed’s Bernanke says Fed can exit its current policy, but adds policy remains focused on recovery. He says inflation is unlikely to be a problem and quiet for the next two years, and he warns against moves that would undermine Fed independence.

Bernanke in his own words: “The FOMC believes that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will be appropriate for an extended period. However, we also believe that it is important to assure the public and the markets that the extraordinary policy measures we have taken in response to the financial crisis and the recession can be withdrawn in a smooth and timely manner as needed, thereby avoiding the risk that policy stimulus could lead to a future rise in inflation.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajT5Q2VaFT1M

lebih baik begitu, sebab turunnya ini mungkin sesaat saja

iya, kalau dilihat dari pidatonya bagus utk US

mungkin menurut kami turun hanya sesaat saja, prefernya lebih baik ke Buy

sebab pidatonya tadi juga agak mengambang kalau kami lihat

tapi hati2, karena kelihatannya omongannya masih mengambang pula, dan kalau dilihat dari sisi teknikal G/U sudah waktunya naik pula

Kami lebih prefer Buy saja lebih baik, karena mungkin kalau turun pun maka akan sesaat saja

kalau dari beritanya memang agak condong US bagus, tapi masih mengambang kata2nya

dan kalau dilihat dari sisi teknikal, mestinya G/U akan bisa naik. Mungkin ini turun hanya untuk sesaat, lalu kemudian Buy. Kami prefer ke Buy saja

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sought to assure Wall Street and Congress Tuesday that the Fed will be able to reel in its extraordinary economic stimulus and prevent a flare up of inflation when the recovery is more firmly rooted.

Bernanke, in prepared testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, also said any such steps will be far off in the future and that the central bank’s focus remains “fostering economic recovery.”

To that end, he again pledged to keep its key bank lending rate at a record low near zero for an “extended period.” Economists predict rates will stay at record lows through the rest of this year.

Bernanke is expected to face tough questions from lawmakers about taxpayer bailouts of financial companies, slow-moving government efforts to curb home foreclosures and efforts by the Obama administration to expand its regulatory duties.

Laying out a plan now to unwind the Fed’s stimulus may give Bernanke more leeway to hold rates at record lows to brace the economy. That’s because doing so could tamp down investors’ fears that the Fed’s aggressive actions to lift the country out of its longest recession since World War II could spur inflation later on.

“It is important to assure the public and the markets that the extraordinary policy measures we have taken in response to the financial crisis and the recession can be withdrawn in a smooth and timely manner as needed, thereby avoiding the risk that policy stimulus could lead to a future rise in inflation,” Bernanke said. “We are confident that we have the necessary tools to implement that strategy when appropriate.”

The Fed chief also sought to beat back an Obama administration proposal that would create a new consumer protection regulator for financial services and strip some of those duties from the central bank.

Consumer groups and lawmakers have blamed the Fed for not cracking down early on dubious mortgages practices that fed the housing boom and figured into its collapse. Later this week, the Fed will issue a proposal boosting disclosures on home mortgages and home equity lines of credit. It also will include new rules governing the compensation of mortgage originators.

Bernanke also urged Congress to keep proposals to audit the Fed away from monetary policy duties. “A perceived loss of monetary policy independence could raise fears about future inflation,” he warned.

To revive the economy, the Fed has plowed trillions into the financial system in an effort to drive down rates on mortgages and other consumer debt. It also has created programs to bust through credit clogs, a key ingredient to turning the economy around.

When the time comes, the Fed will need to soak up that money.

Besides raising its key bank lending rate, the Fed can raise the rate it pays banks on reserve balances held at the central bank, Bernanke said. That would give banks an incentive to keep their money parked there, rather having it flow back into the financial system, where it can stoke inflationary pressures. The Fed also can drain money from the financial system by selling securities from its portfolio with an agreement to buy them back at a later date or it can sell securities outright.

Steering the economy from recession to recovery will be a delicate move for Bernanke — economically and politically.

On the economic front, Bernanke repeated the Fed’s forecast that the economy should start growing again in the second half of this year, but he warned growth would be slight, leading to higher unemployment.

Despite some improvements — including a stabilization in consumer spending and moderating declines in housing activity — the economy remains vulnerable, he said.

“Job insecurity, together with declines in home values and tight credit, is likely to limit gains in consumer spending,” Bernanke said. “The possibility that the recent stabilization in household spending will prove transient is an important downside risk to the outlook.”

The nation’s unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent in June. The Fed says it could rise as high as 10.1 percent this year, and stay elevated into 2011. The post-World War II high was 10.8 percent at the end of 1982, when the country had suffered through a severe recession.

Expectations for a lethargic recovery should keep a lid on inflation this year, Bernanke said. With consumers likely to stay cautious amid rising unemployment, companies won’t be able to jack up prices.

yup, di bloomberg skrg, yang botak dan berjanggut putih 🙂

cnbc juga boleh 🙂

🙂

The dollar recovered Tuesday morning from its lowest intraday levels against the euro in part due to ongoing testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Congress.

The euro also slipped back from a fresh six-week high as the market repositioned following its sharp move higher to $1.4278.

Bernanke tackled inflation expectations head-on in his remarks.

“[We] believe that it is important to assure the public and the markets that the extraordinary policy measures we have taken in response to the financial crisis and the recession can be withdrawn in a smooth and timely manner as needed, thereby avoiding the risk that policy stimulus could lead to a future rise in inflation,” he said.

The dollar’s consequent gains “boils down to the credibility of Bernanke to deliver price stability. And from Bernanke’s view we’re pulling out of this and recovering,” said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon in New York.

Adarsh Sinha, foreign exchange strategist at Barclays Capital in London, adds that concerns over the Fed’s ability to manage the growing U.S. fiscal imbalance has been plaguing the dollar.

“The fact that he’s explicitly talking about this reduces some risk premium,” Sinha said.

The yen also has recovered against the dollar and euro from intraday lows earlier.

Tuesday morning in New York, the euro was at $1.4239 from $1.4229 late Monday. The dollar was at Y93.84 from Y94.23, according to EBS. The euro was at Y133.66 from Y134.09. The U.K. pound was at $1.6475 from $1.6545, and the dollar was at CHF1.0652 from CHF1.0678.

Earlier, the dollar sold off against a broad set of currencies after the Bank of Canada issued a more hawkish than expected policy statement, which thrust the U.S. unit below C$1.10 to as low as C$1.0966 recently.

The statement lead traders to believe Canada could tighten interest rates far ahead the U.S., leaving the dollar vulnerable.

The bank left the benchmark overnight rate at a record low 0.25%, renewed a commitment to hold it at that level until mid-2010, and upgraded economic forecasts.

The bank said stimulative monetary fiscal policies, improved financial conditions, firmer commodity prices and a rebound in business and consumer confidence are spurring growth in domestic demand.

The dollar’s decline also was a product of some technical trading, after the euro broke above the $1.4250 level, said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com.

“That triggered some stop-loss buying,” he said.

And, on the heels of a batch of better-than-expected earnings statements Tuesday morning, appetite for the safe-haven dollar was particularly low.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers Tuesday that the U.S. economy is showing signs of stabilization and that the stimulus authorities have pumped into the global economy probably avoided a collapse of the financial system last year.

Beginning his regular semi-annual update to Congress, the country’s top central banker also warned that the economy is still in a fragile state, with unemployment high and consumer spending shaky.

He noted that the Fed will likely keep interest rates low “for an extended period.”

Still, Bernanke told members of the House Financial Services Committee that the Fed is prepared to remove its stimulus when the time is appropriate in order to avoid a spike in inflation.

“Aggressive policy actions taken around the world last fall may well have averted the collapse of the global financial system,” Bernanke said, according to prepared remarks.

Bernanke said that the economy is showing signs of stabilization, noting better conditions in financial markets and stable consumer spending.

“The pace of decline appears to have slowed significantly, and final demand and production have shown tentative signs of stabilization,” the Fed chairman observed.

However, the Fed chief warned that job losses and tight credit will put a damper on consumer spending. Bernanke noted the possibility that the “recent stabilization in household spending will prove transient,” which would be “an important downside risk” to his outlook.

The chairman said a gradual recovery is expected in 2010, with some acceleration in economic growth the following year.

The unemployment rate will likely peak at the end of this year, Bernanke said, though it will remain high in 2010 and 2011.

On inflation, Bernanke predicted that inflation will likely remain subdued over the next two years.

While he generally stressed the need to keep taking steps to prop up the economy, Bernanke assured lawmakers that the Fed will be able to take away its stimulus when such a move becomes necessary.

Many experts have worried that the massive stimulus that the Fed has pumped into the economy will lead to a significant jump in inflation if kept in place too long.

“The FOMC has been devoting considerable attention to issues relating to its exit strategy, and we are confident that we have the necessary tools to implement that strategy when appropriate,” Bernanke assured lawmakers.

The Fed chief noted that many of the measures the central bank has put in place to fight the recession will be removed “automatically” as the economy recovers.

“Most of our extraordinary liquidity facilities are priced at a premium over normal interest rate spreads,” Bernanke explained.

On the issue of regulatory reform, Bernanke said any changes should focus on the stability of the financial system as a whole and should include stronger capital and liquidity standards for financial firms.

He also advocated extended supervisory oversight, consumer protections for financial dealings, and what he termed “an enhanced bankruptcy or resolution regime.”

Bernanke also warned against giving the authority to audit the Fed to other government organizations, arguing that this could jeopardize the central bank’s independence.

He said that if the Government Accountability Office had the power to audit the Fed, as some have suggested, financial markets would likely perceive it as a weakening of the central bank’s independence and a threat to its ability to fight inflation as it sees fit.

OK, Selamat menyimak pidato Mr.Bernanke di TV Online di http://www.beritaforex.com bagi yang tidak ada CNBC ataupun Bloomberg di Layar TV anda

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Sudah kami post di halaman utama, bisa dicek 🙂

Kemungkinan akan bisa naik, tetapi sebaiknya menggunakan Breakout